Europe may face eSAF shortage by 2030, IATA says

Europe's aviation industry will need about 600,000 tons of synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF) by 2030, but existing production capacity is clearly insufficient to meet this target.

Report's correspondent dispatched to Rio de Janeiro informs that Preeti Jain, Head of Net Zero Research and Programs at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said this at a press conference held as part of IATA"s 82nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) and World Air Transport Summit (WATS).

According to her, current eSAF production capacity needs to be increased 30-fold to meet forecast demand.

"If we translate this into infrastructure terms, instead of one commercial facility currently in operation, nearly 20 more commercial plants need to be built by 2030. This is a huge task for the industry," Jain emphasized.

She noted that given the long timelines for project implementation, operational difficulties and the need to rapidly scale up production, the window of opportunity for commissioning new facilities by 2030 is practically closing.

"Taking practical realities into account, I am concerned that there is extremely little time left to bring sufficient eSAF production capacity into operation by the end of the decade," the IATA representative said.

According to her, the eSAF shortage could lead to serious financial losses for the aviation industry due to the impossibility of complying with mandatory requirements for the use of sustainable fuel.

"If there is not enough eSAF, the cost of non-compliance could amount to around 8 billion euros by 2030 and reach 16 billion euros in some scenarios. At the same time, the problem is not only about penalties. The longer the creation of a full eSAF supply chain under the ReFuelEU initiative is delayed, the faster the cost of non-compliance will rise," Jain said.

She warned that the additional costs would most likely fall on airlines.

"As a result, a paradoxical situation may arise: air carriers will be forced to pay for non-compliance with regulations without having access either to the fuel itself or to the environmental benefits that should be achieved through its use," the IATA department head added.