What does Russia's grain threat promise to Ukraine?

Russia's withdrawal from the 4-lateral (Ukraine, Türkiye, UN and Russia) grain deal not only intensified the military situation around Odesa but also created a threat of a global humanitarian crisis. Let's take into account that during the last year, Ukraine earned up to $10 billion from the sale of products transported through that corridor. This clearly shows the importance of the grain deal for Kyiv.

Mykyta Poturaiev, vice-president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, and MP of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, told Report's Eastern Europe bureau that this does not promise a serious disaster for Kyiv: “In general, the suspension of the grain deal did not create a catastrophic situation for Ukraine. Undoubtedly, this caused a difficult situation. So, it will be more difficult to export Ukrainian products. Of course, this situation will cause more damage to countries buyinh Ukrainian products. However, the economy of our country and the agricultural sector will not suffer from this situation at a catastrophic level.”

According to him, other ways will be found for the export of Ukrainian products, and most of them will be put on the international market: "Of course, in the current situation, Ukraine may lose some of its income. But this will not cause a big problem for a successful war, because Ukraine is supplied with weapons that are in the arsenal of NATO countries and other allies. In addition, the Ukrainian budget is currently filled with macro-financial assistance from the EU, NATO countries, etc."

Poturaiev noted with regret that many Western and NATO countries still do not adequately appreciate what is happening:

“For example, Russia's war against Ukraine is often called ‘conflict, ‘crisis’. But it is clear and obvious that this is a large-scale war. With this, Russia wants to destroy the state and people of Ukraine. Currently, Russia is engaged in piracy in the Black Sea basin. International legal acts confirm this. So, if one state conducts military operations at sea against another without declaring war, it is nothing but piracy. In short, Russia is waging war against Ukraine both on land and at sea.”

Poturaiev stressed that the position of Türkiye and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan differs from the position of other NATO countries:

“I believe that Erdogan has shown by his actions that he will not tolerate Russian piracy in the Black Sea basin. In my opinion, it sends clear signals to Moscow in this sense. Türkiye is committed to the implementation of international norms related to free navigation in the Black Sea. Therefore, I think that, first of all, NATO countries with access to the Black Sea, including other members of the military bloc, together with Türkiye, which will undoubtedly play an important role in this process, should not be afraid of Russia, and should take decisive and serious steps to prevent piracy in the Black Sea.”

President of the Assembly of Nations of Ukraine Rovshan Taghiyev told Report that Russia's actions show that it is a terrorist state.

He believes that Moscow's attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure facilities, seaports and other strategic points pose a threat of a food crisis after the termination of the grain deal.

According to Taghiyev, this crisis will have a negative impact on tens of millions of people living in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and other regions: “Ukraine has declared that it has the right to take retaliatory measures in this regard. For example, against Russian ships. Diplomacy in this matter should be carried out at a high level. The West must now accept that it is impossible to reach an agreement with Russia. Therefore, military aid should be taken seriously to ensure the security of ports in Ukraine. For example, military aviation can be given to Kyiv in order to supply the food products needed by the whole world from Ukraine. In this sense, we hear the statements of American and European politicians. The proposal of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba in this regard is very important. Today, African countries must understand that they cannot hope to reach an agreement with Russia and Vladimir Putin. These countries may suffer from rising prices and food shortages. This can lead to destabilization in various countries, and the arrival of millions of refugees to the countries that are members of the European Union and others. Thus, the military issue against Russian aggression is of great importance.

The President of the Assembly of Nations of Ukraine emphasized that the Kremlin does not understand another language: "We hope that other countries will put more pressure on Russia from now on. Russia puts forward a condition regarding the removal of sanctions for the restoration of the grain deal. But these conditions cannot be fulfilled. In fact, these sanctions force Russia to sit down at the negotiating table. But Moscow does not want it yet. Only the military issue and strong international pressure can force Russia to return to the legal ways."

In his opinion, the role of Türkiye in this sense is very important: "Ankara has a strong navy. Moreover, Türkiye has a strong position regarding the Bosphorus Strait. We hope that the big actors who are not helping Ukraine fight harder against the aggressor Russia at the moment will draw the right conclusions from this situation."