Europe's rightward shift: AfD victory shows protest politics moving closer to power

The rise of the political right in Europe is no longer confined to isolated electoral successes. Right-wing parties are gaining ground, reshaping the agenda of mainstream rivals and moving increasingly close to government.

According to Report's European bureau, the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) sweeping victory in Saxony-Anhalt is one of the clearest signs yet of that shift.

The AfD won around 44% of the vote in the eastern German state, more than doubling its result from 2021, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) saw their support collapse to around 18%. The right-wingers were just a few seats short of an absolute majority in the state parliament – ​​the AfD had 39 of 83 seats.

The result does not mean the AfD will necessarily lead the state government. Germany's mainstream parties continue to rule out cooperation with it. But the fact that a far-right party can now come within reach of governing a German state would have been difficult to imagine until recently.

From protest vote to governing ambition

The significance of Saxony-Anhalt goes beyond Germany. It reflects a broader challenge for Europe's political centre: right-wing parties are increasingly benefiting not only from support for their own positions, but from voters' growing frustration with established political forces.

A study published in June by more than 150 political scientists found that far-right parties collectively won more than 23% of the vote in the most recent national elections across Europe - almost five times their share in the mid-1990s.

But Europe's rightward shift does not follow a single model. Italy offers perhaps the clearest example of a party with far-right roots becoming an established governing force. Giorgia Meloni has led the government for several years, combining a tough stance on migration with a pragmatic approach to the European Union and Ukraine.

Sweden and France offer the next tests

In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats already play a decisive role in the parliamentary majority backing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's government. The September 13 election could further strengthen their position, with the question of whether they should formally enter government becoming increasingly important to the next political configuration.

France presents another test. The right remains a central force ahead of the next presidential election, with Marine Le Pen continuing to command strong support in political assessments. That is putting additional pressure on France's traditional parties, both on the right and the left.

Europe's political centre is moving

The trend is therefore about more than a string of successful elections for Europe's right. The deeper change is that issues once regarded as politically marginal - migration, deportations, national sovereignty, limits on European integration and tougher policies towards Islam - are increasingly becoming part of the mainstream political debate.

This is what makes the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt significant far beyond one German state. Even if the party cannot form a government this time, the result brings Europe closer to a scenario in which the far right in its largest economy is no longer simply a protest force in opposition, but a serious contender for political power.