EIA: Middle East oil output to recover gradually through 2027

Oil production in the Middle East is expected to increase gradually but will not return to average pre-conflict levels before the second quarter of 2027, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

According to Report, the estimate was included in the EIA's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The agency expects production to rise in the coming months as exports through the Strait of Hormuz gradually increase and alternative routes are used more extensively. However, some restrictions on oil exports from the region are expected to remain in place through the end of the year.

The EIA said flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain limited and volatile, contributing to lower oil production in the region over the past month.

Shut-in oil production in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia rose to 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 5 million bpd in July.

The EIA forecasts shut-in production at 6.23 million bpd in the third quarter, 5.66 million bpd in the fourth quarter and 2.72 million bpd in the first quarter of 2027.