IATA expects global passenger demand for air travel to double by 2050

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that by 2050, global demand for passenger air travel will more than double compared to current levels, Report informs referring to the IATA.

Under the mid-range scenario, demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% (2024-2050) from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.

A higher growth scenario would see a 3.3% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050. A lower growth scenario would see 2.9% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.

The different scenarios are driven by alternative modeling of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development.

The pace of growth will be uneven across regions, reflecting differences in demographics, market maturity, economic development, and connectivity potential. Under the mid-range scenario, Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest growing regions over 2024-2050, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%.

The LTDP identifies the fastest growing markets as intra Africa (4.9%), Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5%), Asia Pacific–Middle East (3.9%), intra Asia Pacific (3.9%), and Africa–North America (3.8%), highlighting the importance of investment in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in developing regions.