Brussels Institute: Rivalry for transport routes in South Caucasus reaching new level

Geopolitical rivalry in the South Caucasus is intensifying as transport and logistics connectivity becomes a key tool of influence in the region, Report informs referring to the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics.

"In the South Caucasus, the regional contest is intensifying, as connectivity becomes central to geopolitical influence. The region is no longer a peripheral transit zone, but an increasingly contested node linking Europe and Asia," reads the update. "Alongside the US and Russia, China has also emerged as a key player. Through its Belt and Road Initiative and its involvement in the Trans-Caspian corridor – the so-called Middle Corridor – Beijing has steadily expanded its economic and logistical footprint. Existing infrastructure, such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, already highlights the region"s importance for European energy security. But recent geopolitical shocks have further elevated its significance. The 2026 escalation involving Iran and the disruption of maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, has turned the Middle Corridor into a strategic necessity for transport and energy infrastructure."

"For Europe, investing in the region has become essential for securing the westward flow of energy and minerals amidst fractured global trade, as traditional corridors and routes have become geostrategic chokepoints," the author wrote.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, is an international transport route linking China with European countries via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The Association provides necessary information support, facilitates the simplification of administrative barriers, creates a competitive environment, and achieves maximum efficiency for participants from various countries, including those not directly located along the TITR route.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan, freight volumes along this route have shown stable, positive growth: 759,000 tons were transported in 2019, 783,000 tons in 2020, 586,000 tons in 2021, 1.485 million tons in 2022, 2.764 million tons in 2023, and 4.484 million tons in 2024.

According to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), the volume of freight transported along the Middle Corridor amounted to 4.7 million tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by another 10% by 2027. By 2027, the Middle Corridor's throughput capacity may reach 10 million tons annually, which will strengthen Azerbaijan's transit potential and open up opportunities for attracting additional investment in infrastructure projects.

The target for freight transport via the TITR by 2030 is set at 11.4 million tons.