ING: Azerbaijan's current account surplus may reach 10% of GDP in 2026

In Azerbaijan, under the new oil scenario, the current account is heading towards a 9-10% GDP this year, while the consolidated budget surplus may reach 4% of GDP, Report informs, citing the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group.

Rising commodity prices and significant portfolio investment inflows are strengthening the external buffers of hydrocarbon exporters in the CIS-4 regional countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan) and supporting regional currencies, according to ING.

"The escalation in the Middle East, including persistent tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz, has reinforced a higher commodity-price backdrop. Compared with our previous monthly note, the oil price outlook for FY26 has edged up by $4 to $93/bbl. Based on the macro sensitivities, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan remain the main beneficiaries, while Uzbekistan and Armenia present a more balanced picture," says the bank.

According to ING's estimates, the CIS-4 countries are currently experiencing certain inflationary pressures due to the global economic situation.

"Meanwhile, mounting inflation pressures are leading to tighter monetary policy outlooks. However, that is unlikely to materially affect economic activity in the region," the group believes.

Analysts emphasize that strong portfolio investment inflows are the key positive factor for CIS-4 currencies.

"Compared with the previous month, we have a more favourable near to medium-term outlook for CIS-4 floating currencies, while maintaining a cautious longer-term view until a proven track record in structural transformation is established. Higher reliance on portfolio flows could be a mixed blessing, as financial market investors, unlike corporate FDI partners, can be easily spooked," ING experts believe.

According to analysts, along with imported inflation (through links with the EU, China, and other partners), domestic factors are intensifying pressures in most economies, with the exception of Azerbaijan.

"Azerbaijan (CPI 5.6% YoY as of March), while exposed to imported inflation risks reflected in the central bank's higher FY26-27 outlook, shows weaker domestic pressures given soft growth. GDP contracted by 0.3% YoY in 1Q26, with overall expected full-year growth in low single digits," ING experts note.

Taking into account the current situation on global energy markets, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan significantly improved its forecast for the current account surplus of the balance of payments for 2026 - to $5.5 billion (May estimate) compared to the February estimate of $2.8-3 billion.

As a reminder, Azerbaijan's current account surplus of the balance of payments at the end of 2025 amounted to $3.5 billion, or 4.6% of GDP.