ISW: Russia made no progress on front, mobilization unlikely to save situation

Russian forces are not making significant progress around Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast or anywhere else along the front lines, Report informs referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian forces have made limited advances towards the Ukrainian strongpoint in Bakhmut but at a very slow speed and at great cost, according to the report.

“Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine,” ISW noted.

Russia’s now-completed mobilization is unlikely to decisively impact Russian combat power, the analysts write.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described a 50-50 split between mobilized personnel in combat and support roles in Ukraine.

If that ratio applies generally, it suggests that a total of 150,000 mobilized personnel will deploy to combat roles in Ukraine after training is complete, likely sometime in November.

Russia’s deployment of 41,000 poorly trained combat personnel to Ukraine may have temporarily stiffened Russian defensive lines, although these reservists have not yet faced the full weight of a major and prepared Ukrainian counteroffensive thrust.

The deployment has not significantly increased Russian combat power. The deployment of an additional 110,000 or so mobilized men to combat units therefore remains unlikely to change the trajectory of the war.