Ukraine to lose more than $2 bln in export revenue due to sea blockade

Ukraine is expected to lose more than $2 billion in export revenue in the second half of 2026 due to restrictions on maritime exports, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), cited by Report.

The central bank said Ukraine is redirecting exports to rail, road transport and Danube River ports following the closure of the maritime export corridor. However, the capacity of these alternative routes remains limited.

While Ukraine previously exported 4-4.5 million metric tonnes of agricultural products per month by sea, alternative logistics routes can handle only around 2.5 million tonnes monthly, the NBU said.

The central bank expects the most difficult period to be between August and October, when drought has lowered water levels on the Danube, restricting river transport. Export volumes are expected to recover from November.

The NBU also said rerouting exports will increase storage and transportation costs for the agricultural sector. However, it expects the delayed export volumes to be shipped in the first half of 2027, helping offset the losses.

"Thanks to well-developed alternative routes and the experience gained by agricultural producers, the situation remains more manageable than during the 2022 blockade," the report said.