Most NATO members to hit spending target as alliance braces for potential Trump win

NATO is set to announce that most of its members are on track to hit the alliance’s defense spending target as it prepares for more Russian aggression and braces for the potential election of Donald Trump, Report informs via The Financial Times.

According to three officials, NATO will say on Wednesday that 18 of its 31 members will meet the target of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense this year, with that number likely to rise as budgets are adjusted.

“NATO expects about two-thirds of allies to hit 2 percent in 2024,” an alliance official told the Financial Times.

NATO’s spending rose markedly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine but Trump’s term in office in 2017-21 also brought a significant uptick as the US president harangued his European allies for failing to spend enough.

In 2016, only five countries met the target. Today Poland spends 3.9 percent of GDP on defence, ahead of the US itself on 3.5 percent. Other countries such as Spain trail, spending just above 1 percent.

A declared NATO-sceptic and isolationist, Trump — the presumptive Republican nominee in November’s US presidential election — has previously threatened to withdraw from the military alliance that guarantees Europe’s defense and security.

His rhetoric has continued into the current race for the White House. European leaders were shocked last week when Trump told a campaign rally that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who fail to meet the target.

As Trump performs strongly in opinion polls against incumbent Joe Biden, he is again causing trepidation at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels.

European diplomats and officials say that continuing their upwards spending trajectory is the first of a three-plank Trump containment strategy.

Second, NATO must pivot to focus more on issues that are most important to Trump, such as containing China or tackling terrorism. Finally, allies understand that they must indulge in flattery and charm to win his admiration.

“There’s a lot of talk about [Trump],” said one senior NATO diplomat. “What is the best way to handle a future President Trump? . . . Basically a combination of flattery and a firm hand.”

Despite the increased defense spending since the start of war in Ukraine, the sole guarantor of Europe’s security remains the US commitment to NATO, with no substitute for its 80,000 troops on the continent, the scale and speed of how it can deploy materiel, and its nuclear weapons capability.