WB estimates benefits of Middle Corridor for Azerbaijan at $1.3B in GDP growth

Realizing the full potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, or Middle Corridor) could provide Azerbaijan with an additional GDP growth of 1.84%, equivalent to approximately $1.3 billion in current prices, Report informs, citing the World Bank's update titled "Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor."

The expansion of the corridor is also expected to increase total employment in the country by 1.5%. The primary drivers of this economic growth for Azerbaijan will be increased revenues from transit cargo, heightened business activity in the port and railway sectors, and deeper trade ties with Central Asian and European countries. To achieve these figures, World Bank analysts emphasize that Azerbaijan must continue modernizing its port and railway infrastructure while implementing digital solutions to accelerate customs procedures.

According to the report, the overall development of the TITR could increase the combined GDP of the participating countries by 3.3% in the long term, corresponding to $58 billion in current prices. Total employment across the corridor nations, which include Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan, is projected to grow by 2.9%.

The largest absolute GDP gains are forecast for the region's major economies, specifically Türkiye with an increase of $47.1 billion (4.11%) and Kazakhstan with $6.14 billion (2.22%). For Azerbaijan, a baseline GDP increase of $326 million (0.43%) is expected, though fully optimizing the route yields the higher $1.3 billion projection. In relative terms, smaller landlocked economies will see the greatest benefits, primarily Kyrgyzstan with a 4.83% GDP growth and Georgia with 3.61%.

The World Bank points out that unlocking the corridor's potential will require not only infrastructure investments but also comprehensive institutional reforms, including digitalization and the modernization of state-owned transport enterprises. Furthermore, although Armenia is not currently a TITR host country, the report includes it in its calculations for the 2023–2040 analytical horizon, assuming the country will establish direct physical links with the route in the 2030s.