Russia sought to protract Baku-Yerevan conflict, while Trump shows different approach - Ognen Gogic

US President Donald Trump created the conditions under which Azerbaijan and Armenia were able to sit down at the negotiating table and, on August 8 in Washington, initial an agreement on normalization and the establishment of diplomatic relations, Serbian political analyst Ognen Gogic told Report.

According to him, this also coincided with the weakening of Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus region.

“For years, Russia played the role of broker, but its interest lay in perpetuating the conflict to maintain leverage over both Yerevan and Baku rather than resolving it. With Russia out of the picture, Trump stepped in as a new mediator, offering incentives that made the talks possible,” he said.

In the political analyst’s view, in any conflict, opposing sides sooner or later turn to negotiations.

Gogic noted that Azerbaijan achieved all its goals after restoring its territorial integrity, while Armenia realized the impossibility of starting a new conflict:

“In every conflict, adversaries turn to negotiations when they judge that they can achieve more through dialogue than through armed confrontation.”

The political analyst drew parallels with Serbia, which experienced numerous conflicts during the Yugoslav Wars.

“This dynamic is nothing new for the Balkans. All armed conflicts in the former Yugoslavia ended after one side became exhausted, and with US diplomatic involvement,” he said.

The expert also pointed out that the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is beneficial for President Trump, who is seeking to reinforce his image as a peacemaker:

“He aims to contrast himself with Democrats, whom he portrays as entangling the U.S. in foreign wars, while he 'makes peace' and also secures economic benefits,” he emphasized.

Nevertheless, Gogic noted that the initialing of the peace agreement is only one element of the peace process, and now the sides must ensure the implementation of the arrangements agreed upon in the White House.