Matin Mammadli: Contradictory rhetoric in Armenia undermines trust between Baku, Yerevan

Despite progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan, there are also negative factors: revanchist forces are still active in Armenia, and the rhetoric of the previous conflict has returned, creating serious risks, Matin Mammadli, Head of Department at the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), wrote in his article "The path to peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Remaining risks and challenges" for EUreporter, Report informs.

"Nevertheless, despite various positive signals, several factors continue to exert a negative influence on the peace process. In particular, the growing activity of revanchist forces in Armenia and the reintroduction of rhetoric associated with the former conflict present serious risks. These circles demonstrate reluctance to accept existing realities and attempt to instill unrealistic expectations within society," he wrote.

He also emphasized that the parties are close to a final settlement of the conflict, which lasted for about three decades.

"Since 2020, new geopolitical realities have emerged, creating a tangible basis for the conclusion of a peace agreement between the parties. Within this context, mutual steps such as ongoing discussions on border delimitation, the reopening of communications, and the establishment of diplomatic relations are all signs of real progress," he noted.

"By considering the political platforms of the main opposition forces ahead of the upcoming June elections, their public statements, and their affiliations with certain external centers of power, it becomes evident that the situation remains highly complex. It should also be emphasized that the ideology of revanchism prioritizes the restoration of the former status quo rather than regional integration, thereby posing a threat both to regional stability and to Armenia's own developmental prospects. Moreover, recent statements by certain Armenian officials have contradicted the peace agenda which Yerevan has officially been supporting. Such inconsistent messaging undermines trust between the parties," he wrote.

"Despite certain unconstructive claims by Armenian officials, the Government of Azerbaijan has for now adopted a pragmatic and restrained position. This approach is primarily aimed at preserving the peace process and preventing renewed escalation in the region. It is well documented that during the occupation, large-scale destruction was carried out in Azerbaijani territories, material and cultural heritage was looted, and the Azerbaijani population was subjected to ethnic cleansing. These facts have been reflected in reports produced by various international organizations and expert groups specializing in international law. Undoubtedly, such acts constitute serious violations of international law, and are rightly characterized as war crimes and crimes against humanity. As noted earlier, the former representatives of the illegal separatist regime currently detained in Baku have been prosecuted precisely for their involvement in these crimes. In this regard, calls for their release contradict fundamental legal principles and bear the character of political manipulation," he added.

"The Azerbaijani leadership recognizes that long-term peace cannot be achieved solely through legal measures but also requires sustained political dialogue and the gradual development of mutual trust. At the same time, Azerbaijan's restraint also has its limits. Should Armenian officials continue to rely on unfounded and non-constructive rhetoric, the peace process would be seriously undermined. In such a scenario, Azerbaijan may be compelled to adopt more decisive legal and political measures," he wrote.

"In conclusion, the successful outcome of the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia depends in large part on responsible conduct and a constructive approach from both sides. Failing to seize the present historic opportunity could generate new security risks for the region. While misleading and unfounded rhetoric may yield certain politicians in Armenia short-term political dividends, it poses a serious threat to the prospects of achieving sustainable and resilient regional peace. In this context, the Armenian political elite, in particular, must adopt a more balanced and responsible position which aligns entirely with the peace agenda. The instrumentalization of the peace process for domestic political competition risks weakening ongoing normalization dynamics and eroding the trust that has been achieved to date. Azerbaijan, for its part, continues to pursue a policy grounded in international law, prioritizing the pursuit of regional stability. However, the sustainability of this policy is contingent upon reciprocal and adequate conduct by Armenia," he added.