Honchar: Out of weakness, Russia can only cause trouble for Azerbaijan, but Baku is in a strong position

Russia has shifted to a policy of "multidimensional sabotage against Azerbaijan," Mykhailo Honchar, president of the Centre for Global Studies Strategy XXI stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, while commenting on Russian military strikes on facilities of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) in Ukraine.

Report quotes him as saying the attacks on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine were acts of "revenge out of helplessness."

"It (Russia – ed.) cannot act directly, as it lacks the strength and influence in the South Caucasus, and it does not want to spoil relations with Türkiye, but the Kremlin knows how to cause petty harm," he said.

According to Honchar, Azerbaijan is increasing its participation in the EU gas market, and Moscow will not be able to counter this.

"Azerbaijani gas is expanding its presence in the European market, albeit in a limited way – these are the countries of Southern Europe and the Balkans," he noted, adding that the possibility of supplying Azerbaijani gas has now expanded to Ukraine as well.

In his opinion, as SOCAR expanded its energy export markets, including to Ukraine, the Kremlin decided to strike SOCAR facilities: "This is, of course, not a blow that will have fatal consequences, but it was a symbolic message: 'It could be otherwise.'"

Honchar stressed that Azerbaijan today is in, and feels itself to be in, a strong position, as interest in the country’s energy resources is growing, including from American companies.

"Today they feel in a strong position. The American company ExxonMobil is showing interest in Azerbaijan's yet-undeveloped 'Karabakh' gas field in the Caspian Sea. Therefore, I think Azerbaijan will withstand the blow," the political analyst concluded.