ING renews inflation forecast in Azerbaijan for 2025

The biggest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.5% in 2025, 5.3% in 2026, and 8.9% in 2027, Report informs referring to ING.

Expectations for the current year have increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to previous forecasts, and have remained unchanged in the next two years.

The bank's analysts expect inflation to be 4.9% in Q3 2025 (an increase of 0.1 percentage points), and 5.2% in Q4 (+0.1 percentage points). In Q1 2026, ING expects average annual inflation at 5%, in Q2 at 5.3%, in Q3 at 5.3%, and in Q4 at 5.7%.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, the average annual inflation in the country will be 5.4% this year and 4.3% next year. According to the latest forecasts of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (in July 2025), inflation will be 5.7% this year, and about 5.3% in 2026.

The UN, in turn, predicts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.6% this year and 3.1% next year.

The World Bank expects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.3% in 2025-2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.7% in 2025 and annual inflation at 5.2%.

In 2026, the average annual inflation, according to the fund, will be 4.5%, and in 2027-2029, at 4%. International rating agencies S&P Global and Moody's forecast average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 4% this year and 3% next year, while Fitch Ratings forecasts 5.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. Recall that average annual inflation in Azerbaijan was 2.2% last year and 5.6% in January-August 2025.