ING: Every $10 increase in oil prices brings Azerbaijan $3B in export revenue - EXCLUSIVE

According to estimates by ING Group, the Netherlands' largest banking holding company, every sustained increase in oil prices of $10 per barrel adds approximately $3 billion to Azerbaijan's annual export revenues and approximately $1.5 billion to budget revenues from the energy sector (equivalent to 4% and 2% of GDP, respectively), Dmitry Dolgin, Chief Economist for Russia and the CIS at ING Bank, told Report.

The bank's economist noted that such dynamics effectively eliminate the threat of a trade deficit for Azerbaijan in 2026 and increase the stability of the national currency's peg, the manat.

"The short-term impact on economic growth will likely be insignificant due to the limited potential for increasing the physical volume of hydrocarbon exports. We forecast increased imported inflation, as approximately 45% of Azerbaijan's imports come from developed countries and countries directly bordering the current conflict zone-all of which will suffer losses from rising energy prices," Dolgin emphasized.

The base oil price in Azerbaijan's state budget for the current year is set at $65 per barrel. Today, the price of Azerbaijani oil reached $82.29 per barrel, while the price of Brent crude was $81.16.

Azerbaijan's oil export revenues for 2025 reached $12.1 billion (with an average price of over $70 per barrel), compared to $14.4 billion in 2024, with an average price of $84. In 2025, oil and gas revenues to the Azerbaijani state treasury amounted to 18.828 billion manats, representing a 7.2% year-on-year increase.

($1=1.7 manats)