IMF sees Azerbaijan's public debt at 20.7% of GDP in 2026

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Azerbaijan's total public debt will amount to 20.7 percent of GDP in 2026 and remain at a sustainable level over the medium term.

According to Report, IMF projections indicate that the debt-to-GDP ratio will stand at 20.9 percent in 2027, ease to 20.7 percent in 2028, decline to 20.4 percent in 2029, fall further to 19.9 percent in 2030, and reach 19.6 percent by 2031.

The share of state-guaranteed debt in GDP is also expected to remain broadly stable during the forecast period, accounting for 25.3 percent in 2026, 24.4 percent in 2027, 23.6 percent in 2028, 22.9 percent in 2029, 21.9 percent in 2030, and 20.8 percent in 2031.

According to official statistics released by the Ministry of Finance of Azerbaijan, as of January 1, 2026, the country's public debt stood at $4.81 billion, with 85.7 percent of obligations denominated in US dollars.

In the currency structure of the debt portfolio, the euro accounts for 6.4 percent, the IMF's Special Drawing Rights for 3.2 percent, the Japanese yen for 3.1 percent, and other currencies for 1.6 percent, reflecting a diversified but dollar-dominated composition.

Debt with variable interest rates makes up 49.5 percent of external liabilities, while fixed-rate obligations account for 50.5 percent, indicating a relatively balanced interest rate structure.

Regarding maturity, 58.2 percent of external debt is due within the next five years, 36.1 percent between five and ten years, and 5.7 percent after more than ten years, while the average repayment period, taking into account existing loan agreements and Eurobonds, is 5.1 years.

In terms of creditor structure, 35.4 percent of external debt, or $1.7 billion, is owed to the Asian Development Bank, $1.39 billion, or 28.8 percent, is owed to Eurobond holders, and $657 million, or 14.3 percent, is owed to the World Bank, with the remaining share attributed to other international financial and credit institutions.