IMF expects investment growth in Azerbaijan's economy

According to the IMF"s forecasts, total investment in Azerbaijan will amount to 16.3% of GDP in 2026, Report informs, citing IMF.

"In the past year, hydrocarbon production declined significantly, while growth in the non-oil and gas sector slowed amid the indirect effects of falling hydrocarbon prices and the normalization of investment following previously high levels," said Anna Bordon, head of the IMF mission to Azerbaijan, following her visit to Baku on February 4–17, 2026.

According to the IMF, total investment slowed to 15.7% of GDP in 2025, compared to 16.8% in 2024.

The Fund expects investment growth to recover starting in 2026. Investment is projected to account for 16.4% of GDP in 2027, 16.5% in 2028, 16% in 2029, 15.3% in 2030, and remain at that level in 2031.

The share of public investment in the country"s economy is expected to reach 10.9% of GDP in 2026. It will then decline to 10.3% in 2027, 9.8% in 2028, 9.1% in 2029, 8.4% in 2030, and 8.1% in 2031.

Private investment is projected at 5.4% of GDP in 2026. It is expected to increase to 6.1% (of which 0.3% will be in the oil sector) in 2027, to 6.8% in 2028 (0.5%), and to 6.9% in 2029 (0.5%), remaining at that level in 2030. In 2031, the share of private investment is forecast to rise to 7.2% (0.4%).

According to the head of the IMF mission, expanding the role of the private sector in economic diversification - including through attracting foreign direct investment - requires deepening capital markets to broaden access to financing, improving labor productivity through investment in human capital, and continuing reforms aimed at reducing informal employment in the labor market.