IMF: Azerbaijan's economy to grow in average at 2.35% in 2026–27

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, Report informs, citing the IMF's April World Economic Outlook.

Compared to February estimates, the forecast for 2026 was improved by 0.1 percentage points, while the forecast for 2027 remained unchanged.

Thus, the average annual economic growth of the country over the next two years will amount to 2.35%.

In the Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF projects a slowdown in growth from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 4.6% in 2027, as the region experiences the most direct impact of the conflict (between the US and Israel with Iran) and anticipates a subsequent rebound.

In turn, in the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion, growth of 4.8% is expected in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.

"For commodity exporters directly affected by the conflict, diminished production and exports imply a severe downward revision of GDP growth projections for 2026, depending on the degree of damage suffered in energy and transportation infrastructure as well as the dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and availability of alternative export routes," reads the update.

The IMF notes the continuation of positive momentum in the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion: "The growth momentum experienced over the past few years is expected to continue, with aggregate GDP growth for the group revised upward in 2026 and 2027, by a cumulative 0.3 percentage point."

According to forecasts, in 2028–2031, the global economy will grow at an average of 3.1% per year. These figures remain persistently sluggish compared to the historical pre-pandemic average (2000–2019), when average annual growth was at 3.7%. This trend primarily reflects the slowdown in growth in China. However, average annual growth is also expected to decelerate in a number of other major economies: in Asian countries, in the Middle East and Central Asia, in Sub-Saharan Africa, in North America, and in Europe.

According to the fund's February forecasts, in 2028–2031, Azerbaijan's economy will grow at an average of 2.5% per year.

Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth in 2026 at 2.9%, in 2027 at 3.3%, while the Central Bank expects the country's economic growth at 2.4% in the current year and 2.9% in the following year.

Estimates from international rating agencies vary: S&P Global expects growth in 2026 at 2%, Fitch Ratings at 2.5%, and Moody's at 2.5%. The Asian Development Bank expects Azerbaijan's GDP to increase by 2% in 2026 and by 1.8% in 2027.

The largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING Group, forecasts Azerbaijan's economic growth at 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projects 2% and 2.5% respectively in 2026.

According to World Bank forecasts, Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate will be 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

According to UN estimates, Azerbaijan's economic growth will amount to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.

In 2025, Azerbaijan's economy grew by 1.4%.