Fitch: SOCAR's capex in 2026-2030 to amount to 4B manats per year

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) plans to allocate approximately 4 billion manats per year on capital expenditures between 2026 and 2030, Report informs referring to the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.

Under the agency's baseline scenario, SOCAR's annual dividend payments and other tax distributions to the government will average 1.8 billion manats during the period.

In addition, Fitch analysts factor into their calculations annual investments by SOCAR to support the Petkim petrochemical complex in Türkiye amounting to 250 million manats per year through 2027 inclusive.

The agency's calculations are based on a macroeconomic forecast assuming an average Brent crude oil price of $65 per barrel in 2026 and $60 per barrel in subsequent years. Gas prices at the European TTF hub are projected at $14 per 1,000 cubic feet (mcf) in 2026, declining to $9 in 2027 and $7 in 2028-2029.

The exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat against the US dollar is benchmarked by agency analysts at a fixed rate of 1.7 AZN/$1.

Fitch experts also expect the ongoing decline in SOCAR's hydrocarbon production volumes to stabilize by 2028.