Fitch expects Azerbaijan's current account surplus at 11% of GDP

Fitch Ratings expects Azerbaijan to maintain a positive current account surplus and consolidated budget surplus at the end of 2026, even amid declining global oil prices, Erich Arispe Morales, Senior Director and Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings, said during "Fitch on Azerbaijan 2026" in Baku, Report informs.

"By the end of the current year, we forecast a consolidated budget surplus for Azerbaijan at around 3.7% of GDP, while the current account surplus is expected near 11% of GDP. This demonstrates the preservation of the country's strong external economic buffer," Morales emphasized.

The agency representative pointed out that Azerbaijan's net sovereign foreign assets, including funds of the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) and the Central Bank, are estimated at approximately 73% of GDP, with total accumulated assets reaching about $91 billion.

According to Fitch Ratings, Azerbaijan's direct government debt remains at an exceptionally low level - less than 20% of GDP, which compares favorably with the median value for states in the "BBB" rating category (57% of GDP). An additional element of financial stability is the debt structure, with approximately two-thirds denominated in the national currency.

Morales also drew attention to government measures aimed at gradually reducing public finance reliance on oil revenues and transfers from SOFAZ over the medium term. Under the baseline scenario, Azerbaijan's non-oil primary deficit is projected to decrease from 18.6% of GDP last year to approximately 13% of GDP by 2029.