CEBR: Azerbaijan's cumulative economic growth to reach 43% over next 15 years

Azerbaijan's economy is expected to expand by 3% in real terms in 2025, according to forecasts by the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).

Average growth over the 2023–2025 period is projected to remain above the 0.4% average recorded in the five years leading up to 2019, Cebr said, as cited by Report. From 2026 through 2030, however, average annual GDP growth is forecast to ease to 2.5%.

Cebr noted that solid economic growth in 2025 was accompanied by elevated inflation, estimated at 5.7%. In this environment, policies aimed at restraining demand may be appropriate to limit inflationary pressures over the longer term. Even so, projected inflation for 2025 remains below the five-year pre-2019 average of 6.9%.

Tight conditions in the labor market were identified as a key factor supporting economic performance in 2025. The unemployment rate edged down by 0.1 percentage point to 5.3%, providing a modest boost to consumer spending.

Public finances are assessed to be in sound shape. Government debt as a share of GDP is expected to increase to 22.4% in 2025 from 21.7% a year earlier, while the fiscal deficit is forecast at 1.9% of GDP.

The combination of a relatively low debt burden and a limited deficit points to a resilient fiscal position, Cebr said, supporting private-sector confidence and investment while giving the government greater room for maneuver in future fiscal policy.

Following the 2025 baseline, real GDP is projected to expand by about 2% in 2026. By 2030, cumulative real GDP growth relative to 2025 is expected to reach 13%, rising to 27% by 2035 and 43% by 2040.

Nominal GDP is forecast to increase from about $76 billion in 2025 to $81 billion in 2026. By 2030, output in nominal terms is projected at around $100 billion, rising to approximately $123 billion by 2035 and $152 billion by 2040.

Official projections from Azerbaijan's Ministry of Economy put GDP growth at 3% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.3% in 2027.

Estimates from international rating agencies vary. S&P Global expects growth of about 2% a year in 2025–2026, while Fitch Ratings forecasts 3.5% growth in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Moody's projects annual growth of 2.5%.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development sees growth of 2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The Asian Development Bank projects expansion of 2.4% and 2% over the next two years, while the World Bank expects growth of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. ING Group forecasts growth of 1.6% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027.

Azerbaijan's economy expanded by 4.1% in 2024, while growth in the January–November 2025 period stood at 1.6%.