Azerbaijan demonstrates most stable economic indicators among CIS-4 group - ING

Azerbaijan demonstrates the most stable economic performance within the CIS-4 group of countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan) amid rising global energy prices and ongoing risks to regional currencies, Report informs, citing the Dutch banking group ING.

Increased revenues from the oil and gas sector are strengthening the country's substantial fiscal and strategic reserves, according to ING experts.

Thanks to this, the country manages to maintain a significant surplus in both the state budget and current account, as well as ensure a stable peg for the national currency, the manat, ING specialists emphasize.

According to analysts' estimates, the overall commodity market situation in the region remains mixed due to logistical constraints and external factors pressuring neighboring countries. At the same time, Azerbaijan's strong macroeconomic position reduces the need for urgent measures by monetary authorities.

In particular, experts expect the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, similar to Armenia's regulator, to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% annually against a backdrop of moderate inflation, which is forming from a relatively low base within the 4–6% range.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, monetary policy decisions could prove more flexible due to slowing inflationary trends and the impact of portfolio capital flows.