Azerbaijan current account surplus seen at 6.5% of GDP in 2026

Azerbaijan's current account surplus is expected to average 6.5% of GDP in 2026, Report informs, citing the forecasts of the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING Group.

The bank also estimates that the current account surplus will amount to 1.7% of GDP by the end of 2027.

In 2025, this figure stood at $3.475 billion, or 4.6% of GDP.

According to ING"s forecasts, Azerbaijan's foreign trade surplus will reach 11.6% of GDP in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027.

ING analysts noted that by the end of 2025, the trade surplus had approached zero, driven by falling oil prices and a sharp increase in imports (partly reflecting rising gold purchases).

ING analysts said that this had raised their concerns about the prospects of a current account deficit in 2026 and potential pressure on the foreign exchange market. However, they noted that following the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in oil prices, the risks of pressure on the manat exchange rate had declined. They added that, given their revised forecast for Brent crude prices of up to $82 per barrel for 2026, they now expected Azerbaijan's current account surplus to be in the range of 6–7% of GDP this year. They also stated that the manat's peg to the US dollar was expected to remain stable over the next two years. Overall, they said that the balance of risks to fuel price forecasts appeared to be tilted to the upside.