ADB revises Azerbaijan inflation outlook for 2026–2027 upward

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.9% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

According to Report, citing ADB's Asian Development Outlook, inflation projections for the current year have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points compared to July estimates, and by 0.1 percentage points for next year.

ADB notes that this adjustment reflects the sustained impact of hydrocarbon prices on the national economy, which will accelerate inflation in the second half of 2026.

"In response to rising inflation expectations, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan halted the easing of monetary policy and raised its inflation forecast. Due to higher expectations for the second half of the year, ADB also decided to revise its forecasts," the outlook highlights.

According to the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan, average annual inflation in the country was 5.6% in 2025 and 5.7% in January–August 2026.

The Ministry of Economy projects average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 5.7% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan estimates 6.1% inflation in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027.

The UN forecasts inflation in Azerbaijan at 3.1% this year, while the World Bank expects 2.3% in 2026. Moody's projects 3% inflation this year, Fitch Ratings 4.6%, and Fitch Solutions 5.5% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.

The Netherlands' largest financial group, ING Group, forecasts inflation in the country at 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027.