Marie Thomsen: Every additional $10 in Brent price reduces global economic growth

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $95 per barrel, IATA Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said at a press conference during the 82nd IATA Annual General Meeting and the World Air Transport Summit (WATS).

According to a Report correspondent from Rio de Janeiro, she said jet fuel prices are rising significantly faster than Brent crude, indicating a dual crisis in the industry.

"We expect the average price of jet fuel in 2026 to be $152 per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil at $95. If this forecast comes true, the average crack spread will reach $57 per barrel," noted Thomsen.

She emphasized that further increases in oil prices will have a negative impact on the global economy, as rising energy costs inevitably lead to higher prices across virtually all sectors.

"The entire global economy remains dependent on fossil fuels. Today, more than 80% of global energy consumption comes from fossil fuels, while renewable sources account for less than 20%. Therefore, rising prices for oil, which is used in virtually all sectors, push up prices throughout the entire economic chain, which, in turn, slows global economic growth.

This relationship can be described as follows: every $10 per barrel increase in the price of Brent can reduce global GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points. Accordingly, a $50 increase in oil prices could reduce global economic growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points.

We expect global economic growth to slow from 3% to a level closer to 2.5%. If oil prices continue to rise, growth rates could be even lower. What constitutes a recession is debatable, but in my view, if global economic growth approaches 2%, it's effectively a recessionary environment. We're currently moving from 3% to 2.5% and hope that further deterioration doesn't occur," the IATA vice president added.