IEA reveals three scenarios of oil price change until 2050

A global carbon neutrality policy will push the oil price down to $36/bbl by 2030 and $24/bbl by 2050, Report informs, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2021.

However, according to other scenarios from the forecast, the dynamics of oil prices will be different.

In its report, the IEA relies on three main scenarios for the development of world energy, each of which differs in the scale of climate reforms. A drop in oil prices to $24/bbl is possible under the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. The IEA explains that with the implementation of such a strategy, the world will no longer need new oil and gas fields.

However, two other scenarios from the report assume that the current price corridor or even its growth will remain until 2050. So, in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) scenario, in which all the goals for decarbonization in the world are achieved, the average oil price by 2030 is $67/bbl, and by 2050 - $64/bbl. In the moderate forecast of the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which implies that governments will adhere to conservative strategies and not all set climate targets will be achieved by 2050, the oil price varies in the corridor of $60-90/bbl.

Under the toughest scenarios of decarbonization of economies, the share of OPEC countries in world oil production will be at least 60% compared to the current 40%, the report says.