Fitch revises its oil and gas price forecasts upwards

Fitch Ratings affirmed its 2026 oil price forecast at $87 per barrel and revised its 2027 forecast upward by $5 to $70 per barrel, Jakub Zasada, Director in the EMEA Corporate Ratings Group at Fitch Ratings, stated during "Fitch on Azerbaijan 2026" in Baku, Report informs.

According to Zasada, the 2026 price target established in the spring required no revision despite significant oil market volatility. In mid-June, prices briefly dropped to $70 per barrel following a memorandum between the United States and Iran, as well as the restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to 75% of pre-war volumes.

However, the subsequent escalation and strikes on infrastructure facilities in Saudi Arabia in early September pushed prices back above $100 per barrel.

Fitch analysts project that in the fourth quarter, global oil supply will increase to nearly 107 million barrels per day (bpd) due to production growth in non-OPEC states (US, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina), while global demand will remain around 104 million bpd, creating a market surplus.

Additionally, the agency raised its European gas price forecast (TTF hub) for the current year to $17 per 1,000 cubic feet (approximately $600 per 1,000 cubic meters) and to $11 per 1,000 cubic feet for 2027.

"The revision is driven by reduced liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East. In particular, Qatar, after declaring force majeure in the spring, shipped about 100 LNG cargoes, which is more than 500 cargoes below the figure for the corresponding period last year," Zasada noted.