EBRD: High oil prices benefit exporters, including Azerbaijan

Amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could reach $180 per barrel.

According to Report, this assessment was included in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's (EBRD) regional review.

The EBRD noted that the conflict has impacted its regions of operation through rising energy and fertilizer prices, disruptions in trade and tourism flows, and tighter financing conditions. By March 20, natural gas prices in Europe had more than doubled after LNG production in Qatar was halted due to severe damage at facilities. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, about 14% of global output could be removed from the market, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel.

The bank emphasized that while current oil prices remain below the peaks of 2011–2014 and gas prices are still under 2022 highs, a significant disruption of Gulf oil supplies could drive prices up to $180 per barrel. In the longer term, oil prices may stabilize around $100 per barrel.

EBRD analysts stressed that high oil and gas prices benefit exporters but negatively affect importers. If oil prices remain above $100 for a prolonged period and supply chain disruptions in chemicals and metals continue, global growth could decline by at least 0.4 percentage points, while inflation could rise by more than 1.5 points. Fertilizer prices may also surge, since 25–35% of global raw material trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn could push food prices higher.

The report highlighted that most EBRD countries have limited direct trade with Iran, though such ties are more significant for South Caucasus economies, as well as Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Specifically, Iran accounts for 3.7% of Armenia's imports, 3% of Azerbaijan's, and 1.7% of Georgia's. For Türkiye, Iran is also important, making up about 1.2% of its exports.