ING assesses Azerbaijan's economic outlook for 2026

International financial group ING, in its updated forecast, expects that in 2026 Azerbaijan's state budget surplus will amount to 5% of GDP, while the current account surplus will reach 11% of GDP, according to Report.

"We view our updated global forecast as a direct driver of strengthening Azerbaijan"s external and fiscal buffers: it is expected that the budget surplus will reach 5% of GDP, and the current account balance will amount to 11% of GDP in 2026," the company's experts emphasize.

According to expert estimates, Azerbaijan continues to remain a key beneficiary of rising global energy prices.

"At present, the key factors remain higher fuel revenues and broader energy diplomacy," the experts say.

ING analysts also note that recent data points to an unchanged trajectory in the development of trade corridors:

"International investments in the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli oil field are being considered, a 15-year gas supply agreement for the Absheron gas field has been signed with Türkiye, and the Baku–Supsa pipeline route is being considered as an alternative export channel for Kazakhstan."

At the same time, ING highlights risks that need to be monitored, including relatively high exposure to inflationary pressures from trading partners and a slowdown in economic growth.