UN warns of almost inevitable new record-hot year before 2030

The world is almost certain to experience a new record-breaking hot year before 2030 amid the worsening climate crisis, the United Nations" World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, according to Report.

It notes that there is an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be hotter than 2024, which is currently considered the warmest year on record.

The WMO also estimates a 75% chance that the average global temperature during 2026–2030 will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The organization attributes the intensifying climate crisis to continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels.

Scientists cited by it warn that global warming is already contributing to one death every minute worldwide, with the toll expected to rise if emissions are not rapidly reduced.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell described the current heatwave in Europe as a "brutal reminder" of the consequences of climate change.

"Many other parts of the world are also suffering severely, including India and other regions of Asia," he noted.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that exceeding the 1.5-degree warming threshold could trigger even more destructive heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods, while making adaptation to climate change increasingly difficult.

At the same time, the WMO said the probability of temperatures exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in any single year between 2026 and 2030 remains below 1%.

Another factor that could contribute to rising temperatures is the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to develop by the end of this year. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 96% probability of El Niño occurring between December 2026 and February 2027, while the likelihood of a strong El Niño is estimated at 35%.

Lead author of the report Leon Hermanson said the expected El Niño increases the chances that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded.

The organization also notes that Arctic temperatures over the next five winters are expected to average 2.8 degrees Celsius above recent norms, meaning the region is warming more than three times faster than the global average.